Economy is “on the verge” of growing

CNNMoney.com reported yesterday that 4 million loans are delinquent… and that “the highwater mark should come this fall.”

According to the report, the number of Americans who have fallen at least 30 days behind on their home loan payments jumped 44% in the second quarter from a year ago.

That puts delinquencies at a record 9.24% of mortgages, according to the National Delinquency Report from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

Then, today, at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the global economy is beginning to emerge from recession after “aggressive” action by central banks and governments.

“Economic activity appears to be leveling out, both in the United States and abroad, and the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good,” he said. “The economy is on the verge [emphasis mine] of growing again.”

I am now, always have been and always will be an optimist. But I’m also a realist.

The optimist in me knows that ultimately everything will be fine. The realist in me reminds me that being on the “verge” of growing again means that it will be a long time before many ordinary people like you and I are “back to normal.”

I spoke with an unemployed marketing executive here in New York last week. He’s been out of work for six months. He has high hopes that something will break in the near future. And words like Bernanke’s are encouraging to him.

But Tom (not his real name) realistically shared with me the he expects that when he finally is employed, he will be making less than he was before.

In addition, he realizes that not only will he need to learn to live on less, but he will also have less money coming in with which to replace his now dwindled savings and depleted cash reserves.

Now, here’s what disturbs me the most. Tom is a really bright guy. He’s talented. He’s smart. He’s ambitious. In his last job, he was managing a department of four people. And they produced outstanding work.

When I think about this, I wonder why it is so difficult for Tom to picture himself in his own business, operating his own marketing company, or becoming a marketing agency.

The skills required are exactly the same.